NOD


http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/occ-and-ots-foreclosures-delinquencies.html

OCCForeclosureActivity

Notice that foreclosure in process are increasing sharply, but completed foreclosures were only up slightly.

From the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision: OCC and OTS Release Mortgage Metrics Report for Second Quarter 2009

This OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report for the second quarter of 2009 provides performance data on first lien residential mortgages serviced by national banks and federally regulated thrifts. The report covers all types of first lien mortgages serviced by most of the industry’s largest mortgage servicers, whose loans make up approximately 64 percent of all mortgages outstanding in the United States. The report covers nearly 34 million loans totaling almost $6 trillion in principal balances and provides information on their performance through the end of the second quarter of 2009 (June 30, 2009).

The mortgage data reported for the second quarter of 2009 continued to reflect negative trends influenced by weakness in economic conditions including high unemployment and declining home prices in weak housing markets. As a result, the number of seriously delinquent mortgages and foreclosures in process continued to increase. However, a lull in newly initiated foreclosures occurred as servicers worked to implement the “Making Home Affordable” program during the second quarter.

The percentage of current and performing mortgages in the portfolio decreased by 1.4 percent from the previous quarter to 88.6 percent of all mortgages in the portfolio. All categories of delinquencies increased from the previous quarter, with serious delinquencies—loans 60 or more days past due and loans to delinquent bankrupt borrowers—reaching 5.3 percent of all mortgages in the portfolio, an increase of 11.5 percent from the previous quarter. Foreclosures in process reached 2.9 percent of all mortgages, a 16.2 percent increase.

In the second quarter, 15.2 percent of Payment Option ARMs were seriously delinquent, compared with 5.3 percent of all mortgages, and 10 percent were in the process of foreclosure, more than triple the 2.9 percent rate for all mortgages.

Mortgages guaranteed by the U.S. government, primarily through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) or the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), also showed higher delinquencies than the overall servicing portfolio. Serious delinquencies increased to 7.5 percent of all government guaranteed mortgages, up from 6.8 percent in the previous quarter.

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/09/25/shadow-market-part-ii-banks-avoid-acquiring-foreclosed-homes/

By James R. Hagerty

(This is the second installment of a series of posts on the shadow market.)

Banks appear to be resorting more often to a maneuver that helps them avoid acquiring property through foreclosure.

Before banks can acquire homes in foreclosure cases, there is a public auction, often at a county courthouse. These auctions are typically called trustee sales or sheriff sales. Normally, the lender or loan servicer (an entity that collects payments and handles administrative chores including foreclosure) makes a bid well above what investors are willing to pay for the home, and in those cases the bank ends up owning the property. It becomes part of the vast REO (real-estate owned) inventory that banks must sell off.

But sometimes the lender or loan servicer makes a bid low enough to tempt others to step in with a higher offer and win the auction. That has been happening more often lately in some parts of the country.

Sean O’Toole, chief executive officer of ForeclosureRadar.com, a research firm in California, estimates that in August 19% of homes sold in trustee sales in California went to investors rather than to a foreclosing lender, up from just 4% a year earlier.

In Adams County, Colo., part of the Denver metropolitan area, investors bought 16% of homes at trustee sales in the three months ended Aug. 31,  up from 5% a year earlier, according to Jon Goodman, a lawyer in Boulder who invests in foreclosed properties. Mr. Goodman says more investors are bidding at these auctions because of “a shortage of regular inventory that works for fix and flips.” In addition, he says, some lenders want to avoid the hassles of acquiring, repairing and selling too many houses.

Andrew Katakis, a veteran investor based in Northern California, who regularly buys homes at trustee sales, confirms that competition from other investors is getting tougher. Lately it has been common for 15 to 30 investors to show up for such sales, compared with three or four at typical sales a few years ago. “Prices are getting bid up,” he says. When he acquires homes at trustee sales, Mr. Katakis aims to resell them within three months, though that isn’t always possible.

Mr. Katakis believes banks have become less eager to acquire homes partly because of new legal restrictions on evictions of owners or tenants. For one thing, banks are reluctant to become landlords. The banks also must consider the costs of acquiring and then selling the homes, including commissions to real estate agents or auctioneers and the costs of renovation, maintenance, insurance and taxes. All of those might absorb 25% to 30% of the value of the property, Mr. Katakis says.

Most buyers at trustee sales are professional investors who aim to resell the properties as soon as possible. So the house probably will be up for resale whether the bank or the investor takes it. But Mr. Katakis argues that professional investors typically are more nimble and efficient than banks in reselling property. If so, that could help us clear through the foreclosure mess a bit faster.

When banks do take possession of homes, selling them can take a long time in some cases. MDA DataQuick, a research firm in La Jolla, Calif., looked at homes that were foreclosed between Oct. 1, 2007, and March 31, 2009, in various metropolitan areas. By late August of this year, about 8% of those homes still hadn’t been sold in California’s Sacramento County and 14% were unsold in San Bernardino County. In Clark County, Nevada, which includes Las Vegas, 13% still hadn’t been sold, and 15% were unsold in the Phoenix area.

The August Numbers are out.  Before we discuss this lets refresh what happenned in July:

 

  • Sold to 3rd Party -386 (2%)

  • Cancelled  -2638 (17%) 

  • Postponed -8953 (59 %)

  • Sold to Bank -3311 (22%)  

  • Total July  -15288

 

now for the August numbers:

 

  • Sold to 3rd Party -482(3%) 

  • Cancelled -2763 (18%)

  • Postponed -9217 (62%)

  • Sold to Bank -2482(17%)

  • Total August -14944 

 

basically what this is showing is that over the last three months –

 

  • the number of scheduled trustee sales is basically high but flat.

  • the number of private sales(investor flipping types) has increased

  • the number of cancelled or postponed sales has gradually increased.

  • and the number of Bank Repossessions(these are the REO that hit the market) has gradually decreased each month.

 Early Last year nearly 50% of the trustee sales ended back up in the banks hands.

The banks are doing EVERYTHING IN THEIR POWER  not to foreclose right now it would appear.

I know many people in town who haven’t paid on their mortgage in over a year and the bank still hasnt filed a NOD(notice of default) yet.  

 

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN?

Something is going to have to give sooner or later.It is suspected the banks are going to have to start to pursue the defaults more aggressively. Of course ,a certain percentage of the future trustee sales will end up cancelled due to a short sale or a successful loan modification or sold to a private investor, however by the beginning of 2010 we should start seeing a dramatic rise in the percentage of trustees sales that the Bank gets back.

Our shadow inventory is not homes that the bank has taken back as most end up listed in the mls within a couple months - but are the homes that the banks have not yet foreclosed on for the various reasons that they only know.

 

Only time will tell how this plays out – but get ready for some fireworks! 

Remember before a Tsunami -the water recedes at first and that is what is happening right now.